Sums it Up Nicely

I have been told to take a new drug (three times), for a variant it wasn’t designed for, from a company I don’t trust and for a new disease that we still don’t fully understand. And I’m told it is totally safe by politicians whom I rarely believe, who don’t care and refuse to listen or debate the evidence. – Tim Ordei

From here.

How to Lie with Statistics

How to Lie with Statistics is a book written by Darrell Huff in 1954. Admittedly I haven’t read the book, but it rose to prominence in recent years due to being on Bill Gates “Summer Book List” from 2015. While it was surmised by critics that Bill Gates may have wanted to use this for its literal meaning, the book is intended to make people aware of how true statistics can be misused to create incorrect conclusions.

It’s much like a video. People think if they see things on video then it must be true. But often things that have a huge impact on the context of a situation are not on the video. They are either out of view, or happened before the camera started rolling.

UK “Deaths involving COVID-19” reports

Back on the 13th of September the UK Office for National Statistics released a report entitled “Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021“.

On the 1st of November the report was re-released to include the data from 2 July to 24th September 2021.

The first main point in the first released report was as follows:

  • In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.

If you were wanting to show the effectiveness the Covid-19 vaccines, then this an excellent statistic to have. This hammers home that this vaccine clearly reduces the risk of death from Covid-19. The vaccine must be very effective as these two figures of 51,281 and 640 throw quite a stark contrast.

A stark contrast, but is this a fair comparison?

When this data started being collected only 0.68% of the UK population was vaccinated. It wasn’t until April that this went above 10% and then June before this went above 50%. As of week 26, the last week of the data from the first report, this percentage was 59.4%.

As the vaccination rate is changing over time, I thought it would be helpful to map this. Thankfully you are able to download the full data sets from these reports with this information broken down. I was able to compare, 1) the unvaccinated population as a % of the total population, against 2) the unvaccinated Covid-19 deaths as a % of the total Covid-19 deaths. I did the same for the fully vaccinated. UV = Unvaccinated, FV = Two Dose vaccinated. There is also data for partially vaccinated people that is not shown in these graphs.

Chart showing % of Covid-19 Deaths of unvaccinated Population vs % of total population who are unvaccinated
Chart showing % of Covid-19 Deaths of vaccinated Population vs % of total population who are vaccinated

As you can see, the percentage of Covid-19 deaths amongst unvaccinated people follow very closely the percentage of unvaccinated people in the population. For fully vaccinated unsurprisingly we have the same situation where the percentage of Covid-19 deaths follows the percentage of population. In fact with fully vaccinated chart the visual appears to be more of a close correlation.

These rates following closely is what you would expect to see if Covid-19 affected all people equally. This is not what you would expect if the vaccine were effective. If the vaccine were effective then as the vaccine rates increase the percentage of deaths in the fully vaccinated should stay low. Especially when we have been told from the ‘pulpit of truth’ that vaccinated people, while they may still catch Covid-19, will not have severe illness nor die.

Why so many unvaccinated deaths?

The reason that there is a huge number of unvaccinated deaths, when compared to vaccinated deaths, is primarily because most of those deaths happened earlier on, before people were able to be vaccinated. You can see from the worldometer graph below that the main peak of deaths happened right at the start of this data window. It drops away to almost zero through the middle before picking up a little at the end. The window for the data from full data set from the second report is within the blue square.

Graphh of UK daily deaths, showing report data window.

Vaccines or Lockdowns?

Some people will then say “Hey, you can’t say that! The overall deaths have dropped so this must be because of the vaccine”. However it is not difficult to disprove this.

Graph showing Total COvid-19 deaths over time compared to the vaccination rate

As you can see clearly in the graph above, the deaths per day have almost bottomed out before the vaccine rate starts to rise around week 12. In fact 42,000 of these deaths occurred before even 5% of the population were vaccinated. The drop in deaths is far more likely attributed to a lockdown. This data starts on the 8th of January 2021. The UK entered it’s third National Lockdown on the 6th of January 2021.

What Vaccines are the UK using

I have had difficultly finding the exact numbers of administered vaccines by type in the UK. But I have found in this BBC article how many doses the UK have ordered. The Pfizer vaccine used in New Zealand seems to be a major player in the UK’s vaccination program.

Chart showing UK Vaccine orders

Comparison of the two reports

In report #1, the first main point listed above compares the 51,281 total deaths involving Covid-19 with the 640 deaths in people fully vaccinated. Interestingly an equivalent main point comparing these same figures is completely missing from report #2.

Why would the main point listed in a report, not be repeated in a subsequent report? Likely this is due to the fact that the deaths in the interim were 1,268 unvaccinated and 3,896 fully vaccinated. More than 3 times as many vaccinated people died than unvaccinated over this 12 week window. This is not a figure that we see mentioned in the summary.

Comparing 56,445 total deaths involving Covid-19 with 4,536 deaths in the fully vaccinated doesn’t quite have the same stark contrast. Maybe the editor could mention how the data makeup has changed significantly, or, yeah-nah we’ll just leave it out.

Comparison of Breakthrough Cases

Along with the main point in report #1 mentioned above, there were 4 other main points. 3 of these main points talk about breakthrough cases or deaths. According to dictionary.com a breakthrough case is “an instance in which a person becomes sick with a disease despite having received the vaccine for that disease. In other words, the vaccine fails to prevent the person from becoming infected.

It goes on to say “Please note: No vaccine is 100% effective, but breakthrough cases are extremely rare. In the US, breakthrough cases of COVID-19 are reported to have occurred in less than 1% of all those vaccinated—as low as .01% in some studies.”

With 640 out of 51,281 we can talk about breakthrough cases as only 1.25% of deaths were in the vaccinated. However with 4,536 out of 56,445, it’s a bit more difficult. This is now more than 8% of the total covid-19 deaths. And more tragically, over 75% of the deaths within the last 12 weeks of this data set have been breakthrough deaths. So, while disappointing, it’s unsurprising that any mention of breakthrough deaths is completely missing from the main points in report #2. In fact, the word breakthrough is not mentioned at all in the second report, after 25 appearances in the first. Again, we’ll just leave that out.

In closing

I’m not saying that the vaccine is entirely ineffective. I’m certainly not saying that there is no data out there that is showing benefits. But I would say two things are abundantly clear.

It is absolutely BS to think that everything the government says is “truth”. Governments tell us that they are our source of truth. They are not worthy of the same label of “misinformation” they would happily smear on all who disagree. They are however still politicians, and are highly selective about what information is presented in order to manipulate perception.

It is also BS to think that the vaccine prevents death in a significant way as we have been told. First we were first told the vaccine stopped transmission. When this eventually be came an indefensible position, there was a quick change to ‘the vaccine prevents illness and death’. However this is now also an indefensible position, with the last week of the UK data painting a different picture. With 75% of the population being vaccinated, more than 75% of covid-19 deaths are in the vaccinated. And this is not new, this trend has been happening for the last year. Our leader has told the “team of 5 million” that if they get vaccinated then they won’t get severely sick, or die, and this is just not true!

Under Shepherds, Represent the Great Shepherd

Some readers of Sojournal may be disappointed that for months now we have moved away from our typical content and focussed on issues covid, particularly the mandates and the tyranny that is being imposed on a once free people. I make no apology for this. Nor are words like tyranny out of place, contrary to the opinions of well-meaning friends who think I’ve gone off the deep end. I am not a slave, and I will not be dictated to by a deity grasping state about what I will put in my body. To hell with that. And I mean that quite literally – that grasping authoritarianism is reminiscent of the evil one himself and clearly signals its diabolical origins. So covid dominates, because this is the issue of our time. This is where the battle currently is, and to ignore it is a dereliction of duty for those who claim to be followers of the king. Unfortunately in too many churches in New Zealand, covid and the issues arising from it have been studiously ignored and ‘spiritual’ matters focussed on. All hell (literally) seems to be breaking loose in our little country, and many under-shepherds of Christ seem content to lull the sheep into a false sense of security rather than train them up for battle and prepare for persecution. Some have even joined the enemy.

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Westminster Confession of Faith 2.1 – What is God?

In our previous look at the Wesminster Confession of Faith we completed the first chapter “Of the Holy Scriptures” with highlighting how Scripture is to be the supreme judge in matters of religious controversy. This week we commence the second chapter of the confession which is entitled “Of God and of the Holy Trinity”.

I. There is but one only living and true God, who is infinite in being and perfection, a most pure spirit, invisible, without body, parts, or passions, immutable, immense, eternal, incomprehensible, almighty, most wise, most holy, most free, most absolute, working all things according to the counsel of His own immutable and most righteous will, for His own glory, most loving, gracious, merciful, long-suffering, abundant in goodness and truth, forgiving iniquity, transgression, and sin; the rewarder of them that diligently seek Him; and withal most just and terrible in His judgments; hating all sin; and who will by no means clear the guilty.

In this first part of the chapter we are presented with a number of truths. Firstly we are presented with the fact that there is only one true and living God. The framers of the Confession spend no time proving the existence of God. God is, and it is the fool who denies his existence (Psalm 14:1). Besides, His works and Word testify to Him most clearly as the framers of the Confession discussed in chapter 1.

Next, we are presented with the attributes of God. Theologians often draw a distinction between incommunicable and communicable attributes. Those which are incommunicable are attributes of God alone (such as eternity or immutability) and those which are communicable are attributes that his creatures can share to a lesser degree, such as being and wisdom. We won’t explore all of them, but a smattering will suffice for today’s post.

God is described by the framers as infinite in being and perfection. What does this mean? His existence is free from any limitations. Unlike us, He is everywhere present fully. He is a ‘most pure spirit’, which as the catechism puts it means ‘he has not a body like men’. He is invisible, which is why Russian cosmonauts shouldn’t be surprised they don’t find him in space. His being is pure spirit and when described in Scripture as having a strong arm or eyes, we are merely being given metaphors to help us understand Him. So as a spirit, we can say He is invisible and has no body or parts. But what does it mean that He has no passions? Does it mean that God is emotionless? Clearly the Scriptures do not support this picture of God. We see God rightly expressing compassion, love, wrath and forgiveness. A great little discussion on this term is found here. Essentially what is meant is that “God is not passive, not acted upon or overruled by any other power or influence.

Listed next are some of his attributes. Immutable means God is unchanging. Change would suggest becoming better or worse and clearly, this cannot apply to the God of the Scriptures. In Him “there is no variation or shadow due to change“(James 1:17). Incomprehensible means that God is not like us. We cannot comprehend him apart from his gracious revelation of himself to us, and even in that, He condescends to the level of our finite understanding. Almighty is what we sometimes describe as omnipotent. God is not constrained and can do as He pleases. Most holy reminds me of the throne room scene in Isaiah’s vision where the seraphim are proclaiming God’s holiness over and over. This highlights his infinite purity and utter transcendence.

The phrase ‘working things to the counsel of His own immutable and most righteous will, for His own glory‘ reminds us again that God is almighty. He has a will which is righteous and not tainted by sin, and he works all things (yes that means all, even the bad and even the insignificant) so that his perfect will is done and glory is brought to His name.

Towards the end of this first section, we are reminded of God’s love, grace, mercy, patience (long-suffering) and his willingness to forgive sin and reward those who diligently seek Him, but conversely, his just judgment and hatred of sin. He will by no means clear the guilty, which is precisely why His Son Christ had to bear our guilt. These words ought to be a reminder to all to diligently seek God through His son Christ to find forgiveness and his grace and mercy.

Mainstream Propaganda and the Embarrassment National has Become

For a long time I’ve been aware of the role media has in shaping public opinion. I remember the lead-up to the anti-smacking bill, civil unions and the more recent homosexual ‘marriage’ law and the cannabis referendum in 2020. Mainstream papers and television news blatantly promote their views and fashion their reporting to create their desired narrative. What’s more disconcerting than this fact is that so many Kiwis are hoodwinked by it, thinking they are getting largely unbiased ‘news’.

Unfortunately, our prostituted media have outdone themselves through the Covid ‘pandemic’. The insistence on calling anyone opposed to the covid vaccine or the government’s no jab no job rules ‘anti-vaxxers’ and almost daily smears against the unvaccinated combined with their attempts to underreport numbers at anti mandate protests or describe the protestors as far-right or white supremacists has, unfortunately, had its effect on the compliant Kiwi population. Sometimes the claims are just plain ridiculous. Just why the Maori ‘community’ would be interested in white supremacy I fail to understand. Perhaps our leaders are insinuating Maori are stupid and need a maternalistic state making sure racists don’t encourage them to make medical decisions for themselves. But the only stupid ones are those who believe and take on board these ridiculous smears without investigating for themselves.

Which brings us to the National Party of New Zealand. What a disgrace. You would think that we would have leaders intelligent enough to see through the government propaganda. But no. Men like Luxon seem to promise nothing more than more competent authoritarianism. “Labour is driving New Zealand over a cliff at 100km/h. Vote for us, we’ll spend less on the car, slow things to 50, and make sure everyone has their seat belts on!”

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